How Will Higher Rates Affect Housing?

Naples, FL Home
Naples, FL Home

Time is ticking: The Federal Open Market Committee is less than a week away from what most analysts predict will be a vote to raise the federal funds rate for the first time since June 2006. An uptick in the federal funds rate would then prompt interest rates to move higher.

Some housing analysts say just the anticipation of the rate hike is already affecting the housing market.

“The housing market’s capacity for existing-home sales is declining with the expectation of a Fed rate increase pre-adjusting mortgage rates and causing a slowdown in house price appreciation,” notes Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American Financial, in a new report on the fourth quarter Real Estate Sentiment Index. “Market capacity remains modestly in excess of actual sales due to leverage-assisted housing asset inflation, which is home price appreciation fueled by low mortgage rates. Rising mortgage interest rates and moderation in house price appreciation were the most important market fundamentals that reduced market capacity this month. Now that interest rates are pre-adjusting in response to signals from the Fed for a highly expected increase in December, demand is also declining.”

A 25-basis point rise in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, for example (which was at 3.93 percent for the week ending Dec. 3), would likely slow home appreciation by 1 percent more than expected without the rate increase, Fleming says. He also predicts that existing-home sales would then slow by about 2.5 percent on annualized and seasonally adjusted basis, a decline of less than 150,000 sales a year.

“The housing market isn’t doomed by a Fed rate increase, but demand would fall modestly,” Fleming maintains.

Just how big of an impact could it have to potential home shoppers’ wallets? Forbes.com cites an example of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 10 percent down payment on a $350,000 home at 4 percent will cost home purchasers about $1,503.86 per month plus taxes, home owner’s insurance and Private Mortgage Insurance. That same 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 4.5 percent interest rate will cost a home buyer $1,596.06 per month – an extra $92.20 per month or $33,191.54 over the 30-year life of a mortgage. If rates rise to 5 percent the costs will jump to an extra $184.40 per month and $66,383 over the 30 year life of the loan.

Despite the uptick in rates, “expectations for future home ownership demand remain positive, despite changing market conditions,” Fleming notes.

The First American report showed that interest rates would need to reach 5.1 percent before significantly influencing the volume of residential transactions.

Source: “What Will the Looming Fed Rate Hike Do to Housing?” HousingWire (Dec. 9, 2015) and “How Much House Will a Rate Hike Cost You?” Forbes (Nov. 8, 2015)

 

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Naples Area Farmers Markets

With the arrival of season comes the offerings of the Naples Area Farmers Markets.  Following are some of our best markets for shopping locally grown goods.

 

Swiss Chard - fresh produce at Naples area green and farmers' markets

Third Street South Farmers Market

As far as fresh markets go, the Third Street South Farmer’s Market is one of the best. From the fab location – Third and Gordon Dr. – to the collection of vendors, the Third Street South Farmer’s Market has become the standard bearer: the market fosters a closer sense of community all the while supporting local growers, cooks and crafters, and healthy lifestyles – you can’t get much better than that.

A year-round affair, the farmers market sets up shop behind Tommy Bahama every Saturday from 7:30-11:30 a.m. with more than 50 vendors on hand, offering an array of goods.

Offerings: Co-op of small growers and farmers with assorted vegetables and fruits, Florida grass-fed beef, dog treats, prepared foods (pastas, cheeses, cured meats, guacamole, baked goods, pastries and more), sauces and preserves, fresh-roasted coffee, raw honey, beauty products, fresh cut flowers, fresh seafood, handmade crafts and goods.

Details:

  • Year round, every Saturday from 7:30-11:30 a.m.
  • Location: Third Street South – Behind Tommy Bahama (intersection of Third Street South and Gordon Dr.), Naples
  • For more information, visit thirdstreetsouth.com/farmersmarket.

 

Produce from Inyoni Farms, Naples
A selection of produce from Inyoni Farm at the Third Street South Farmers Market. Photo courtesy of Inyoni Farm.

 


 

 

Pine Ridge Road Farmers Market - Paradise Coast fresh and green markets

Pine Ridge Road Farmers Market

For those prefer to save their shopping for a leisurely Sundays, then the Pine Ridge Road Farmers Market is the place for you. Beginning October 12, the Marquesa Plaza (intersection of Pine Ridge Rd. and Livingston Rd.) will become a bustling center of local commerce from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. through May 17.

The Sunday market time allows some of the bigger growers and purveyors to pull double duty on the weekend, attending Third Street South and/or Shoppes on Vanderbilt on Satruday, and heading to Pine Ridge on Sunday. All this means is that the bounty is that much better for you, the savvy sustainable shopper.

Offerings include: fresh, locally grown vegetables, organic produce and fruit; fresh-cut flowers, orchids, fruit trees and plants; baked goods; fresh seafood; prepared foods (salsa, dips, jams and jellies, preserves and pickles); bath and beauty products (handmade soaps, candles and lotions); home goods and artisan wares.

Details:

  • Runs 9 a.m.-2 p.m. every Sunday, October 12-May 17.
  • Location: The Marquesa Plaza – 3370 Pine Ridge Rd., Naples
  • For more information, visit naplesmarketplace.net.

 

Shoppes at Vanderbilt Farmer’s Market

Dodging the hot, humid weather is a primary goal of Naples residents and visitors during the summer and early fall. The Shoppes at Vanderbilt Farmer’s Marketprovides a bit of cool escapism during the stickiest months of the year by moving indoors. The emporium’s vendors set up shop in air-conditioned comfort at the Shoppes location each Saturday from 8 a.m. until 1 p.m. through December 27.

“Most of our vendors are seasonal, but a few wanted to be able to operate all year,” says Market Manager Laura Sloat. “We saw the need and decided to make that possible.”

A wide mix of prepared and organic foods, candles, coffee and crafts, all local, are sold by the 40-plus vendors participating in the market. What’s new this season? Lehigh Acres-based Maverick Meats and Neighborhood Organics, Naples, are joining the market, selling grass-fed beef and organic produce, respectively. —Isaac Espinosa

Shoppes at Vanderbilt Farmer's Market

And the indoor market is not all that’s on tap for the Shoppes at Vanderbilt. Beginning October 18 through May 9, the outdoor farmers market will run concurrently as the indoor version, giving the market an expanded footprints, allowing for even more vendors to take part and sell their wares.

Neighborhood Organics - Shoppes at Vanderbilt Farmer's Market

The newest addition, Neighborhood Organics, takes the co-op idea to a new level, creating a brick and mortar location for local growers and purveyors. Open during farmers market hours, the specialty grocery store will offer and array of goods, including organic vegetables and produce, fresh herbs and plants, handmade goods, and more – essentially all the goods that are normally available at the market, but on a curated and store-like setting. It’s the perfect place for vendors that might not have a full tent worth of goods to offer, but still wants to get their wares to market. It also allows for larger variety of vendors to bring their goods to the Shoppes – the self-contained and staffed Neighborhood Organics runs the shop, with vendors needing just drop off the goods and pick up their cash.

Offerings: organic vegetables and produce; fresh fruit; herbs; plants; just-cut flowers; baked goods and pastries; prepared foods –pickles, jerky, lunch, dinner, breakfast, you name it; fresh-roasted coffee; fresh, local seafood; preserves and jams; jewelry and fashion accessories; handmade bath and beauty products; artisanal home accessories.

Details:

  • The indoor market is open year-round on Saturday from 8 a.m.-1 p.m. The outdoor market will open Saturday, 8 a.m.-1 p.m., from October 18 through May 9.
  • Location: Shoppes at Vanderbilt – 2355 Vanderbilt Beach Rd., Naples
  • For more information, visit farmersmarketswfla.com.

 

Lee County Rockstars

When it comes to Lee County, the farmers/green market mavens behind Local Roots, Jean Baer and Betsy Ventura, are the people to see for fresh, local goods. Operators of the five largest farmers markets in Lee County, Local Roots sole mission it to connect consumers and shoppers with growers and producers directly, fostering a sense of community while keeping money within the local economy. It’s a tall task, but one they pull off with aplomb.

Of the five markets Local Roots operates, two are fall within our area of coverage: the Coconut Point Farmers Market and the Bonita Springs Farmers Market. If shoppers are up for a drive, the Sanibel Island Farmers Market, also a Local Roots gig, is one of the best fresh markets in Southwest Florida.

Local Roots - Lee County Farmers Markets - Coconut Point Farmers Market - Bonita Springs Farmers Market

Coconut Point Farmers Market

Located at the Coconut Point Mall, this farmers market runs every Thursday at 9 a.m.-2 p.m. from October 2 through April 23. Vendor offerings include: fresh produce, just-caught seafood, locally raised meat, local raw honey, baked goods, and an assortment of artisan products (handmade soaps and candles, hand-woven basket and hats).

Bonita Springs Farmers Market

Situated at The Promenade at Bonita Bay, the Bonita Springs Farmers Market is Local Roots’ Saturday market place for southern Lee County. Operating every Saturday from 8 a.m. to 1 p.m., beginning October 4through April 25, the market offers an array of goods, including: fresh fruits, vegetables, cut flowers, plants, baked goods, seafood, honey, jams, and artisanal goods. As for prepared foods, this is one of the better shopping spots, with a diverse variety of breakfast and lunch options to choose from.

 

Farmers Market at Collier County Government Complex

With a focus on encouraging a healthy lifestyle, the Farmers Market at the Collier County Government Complex literally brings the shopping to you. Situated on the ground floor covered parking garage, a variety of vendors flock to the shade, selling natural and organic produce, as well as specialty ready-made foodstuffs on Fridays from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Reduce your weekend produce shopping to a lunch break grab and go. Vendors include Eldridge’s Produce, Dining by Design and Radical Rations to name a few. For those looking for a lunch treat, a number of food trucks are on hand for a quick bite, The Nosh Truck is always on the scene, serving up its famous Pad Thai burger, Nosh burrito and much more.

  • Location: Collier County Government Complex – 3299 Tamiami Trail East, Naples
  • For more information, call 239-252-8999.
The Nosh Truck's Pad Thai Burger - Naples
The Nosh Truck‘s Pad Thai Burger, available at the Farmers Market at Collier County Government Complex. Photo courtesy of The Nosh Truck.

 

 

The City of Marco Island Farmers Market

The seasonal Marco Island Farmers Market will open November 12 and run every Wednesday from 7:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. through April 22. During the week of Christmas and New Year’s Eve, the market will be open Tuesday, December 23 and Tuesday, December 30.

Originally started in 2005 at St. Mark’s Church to raise money for the Guadalupe Center in Immokalee for needy migrant worker families, the market quickly became a local favorite and was taken over by the Marco Island Park and Recreation Department to serve as a seasonal event.

Offerings: fresh fruits, garden vegetables, herbs, just-cut flowers, fresh seafood, baked goods, raw honey, sauces and preserves, kettle popcorn, chcoclates, handmade soaps, jewelry and crafts from local artisans.

Details:

  • The market will be open every Wednesday, 7:30 a.m.-1 p.m., beginning November 12 through April 22.
  • Location: Veteran’s Community Park – 901 Park Avenue, Marco Island
  • For more information, visit cityofmarcoisland.com.

Naples and the Paradise Coast's farmers markets

Farm Fresh Market

The Bonita Springs Lions Club will once again present its Farm Fresh Market every Saturday from 7:30 a.m. to 12 p.m. beginning October 18 and running through May 2. The quaint market will showcase four fully stocked vegetable vendors as well as vendors selling fresh cut flowers, baked goods, seafood and more. Proceeds from vendors fees help support the Lions Club programs, including an eye clinic for the poor.

Details:

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Market Report for October 2015

NAPLES / BONITA SPRINGS / ESTERO MARKET AREA

 

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CLOSED SALES

  •   Closed sales through October remained approximately the same as the first 10 months of 2014 (11,220 in 2015 vs. 11,327 in 2014).
  •   The number of closings priced at $2 million and above continued at a brisk pace, up 8% year-to-date over the same period 2014, and up 13% over the past 12 months.

 

NEW LISTINGS/INVENTORY

  •   Available inventory in the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market on November 1, 2015 consisted of 4,637 units (2,666 single family homes and 1,971 condominiums). Available condominium supply declined by 26% from prior year while the supply of single family homes remained approximately the same.
  •   Current inventory represents approximately 4.2 months of supply based on closings for the past 12 months.

 

AVERAGE AND MEDIAN SALES PRICE

    •   The average price of closed sales year-to-date is up 10.5% over the same period in 2014 and median price is up 15%.
    •   Average sale price for properties priced above $2 million increased almost 8% over the past 12 months, driven by high demand in this segment along with an increase in the number of closings above $5 million.

 

12- MONTH COMPARISONS

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“The source of this real property information is the copyrighted and proprietary database of Southwest Florida MLS, Copyright 2015, and the proprietary compilation of that data by John R. Wood Properties, its employees, and professional statisticians hired by the Wood firm. Accuracy of the information is not guaranteed; it should be independently verified if any person intends to engage in a transaction, relying on such data.”